The Myth of Easy Money
Recognizing Survivorship Bias in Business Media
You know those clickbait stories where someone quits their job, starts a side hustle selling custom socks, and suddenly becomes a millionaire? Or tales about a regular Joe who trades stocks or flips houses for millions? I see them everywhere, from CNBC to Forbes to X influencers. It is as if everyone is destined to be the next hustle millionaire, crypto king, or real estate mogul.
But something feels off. These stories do not align with the reality I observe, where people grind away and often see little in return. So, I dug into this concept called survivorship bias. Here is my take on why it is a problem and what the real world looks like for most people.
1. Survivorship Bias: Only Seeing the Winners
Survivorship bias occurs when we focus only on successes and overlook failures. This concept became clear to me through a World War II study on airplanes. The military noticed bullet holes on returning planes and initially thought they should reinforce those areas, like the wings and tail. However, statistician Abraham Wald pointed out that they were only examining planes that survived and returned. Planes hit in critical areas, like engines, likely did not make it back. Thus, they needed to armor the areas with fewer holes. That is survivorship bias: focusing solely on successes and missing the failures.
Business media often falls into this trap. They spotlight individuals who turned a side hustle into a fortune, made a killing trading stocks, or flipped houses for massive profits. Stories abound about the guy who quit his job to sell T-shirts online and became a millionaire, or the woman who traded crypto and bought a yacht. But they rarely mention the thousands who tried the same and lost money, time, or both.
This creates a skewed perception. It is like watching a poker game and only noticing the player who won the pot, not the dozens who went broke. The bias makes it seem like anyone can hustle, trade, or invest their way to riches. In reality, the odds are heavily stacked against you. I am not saying it is impossible, but the media makes it seem far easier than it is.
2. Side Hustles: More Grind Than Glory
Everyone has heard of side hustles, whether it is driving for Uber, selling on Etsy, or freelancing on Fiverr. The media loves stories of people earning six figures selling handmade candles or driving for Lyft. But the reality is different. A 2025 survey found that 70% of Americans have a side hustle, yet most earn less than $500 a month. That is not yacht money. It is barely coffee money.
The challenges are daunting. You might spend hours on Upwork bidding for gigs, only to be underpaid or ghosted. On Etsy, ads, shipping, and competition can devour your profits. According to the Small Business Administration, half of small businesses fail within five years. Side hustles face even greater challenges because you are balancing them with a day job. The media rarely highlights the burnout, late nights, or money sunk that do not pay off. While not every side hustle fails, it is far more demanding than the glossy stories suggest.
3. Trading Like Buffett: A Long Shot
The dream of trading like Warren Buffett is alluring. X posts and Robinhood ads hype up regular folks buying stocks or crypto and striking it rich. The 2021 GameStop craze had people believing they could outsmart Wall Street. But the numbers tell a different story. A 2024 study found that 72% of day traders lose money annually, and only 1% consistently outperform the market over five years.
The media gushes over Buffett but often misses key life events like how he was professionally mentored by a sucessful investor and professor. Or that his partnership with Charlie Munger guided him to buy entire businesses and influence management, options most of us do not have. The average investor faces professional traders with advanced algorithms, insider knowledge, and deep pockets. Trading fees and poor decisions can quickly erode your capital.
Even Buffett himself recommends low-cost index funds for steady, long-term growth, rather than chasing hot stocks or crypto.
“A low-cost index fund is the most sensible equity investment for the great majority of investors. By periodically investing in an index fund, the know-nothing investor can actually outperform most investment professionals.”
This advice is often drowned out by the allure of “get rich quick” stories. The media celebrates the person who turned $1,000 into a million, but ignores the thousands who lost everything on meme stocks or crypto crashes.
4. Real Estate: Not Always a Gold Mine
Real estate investing gets similar hype. Stories of people buying a fixer-upper, flipping it, or turning it into an Airbnb for big profits are everywhere. Posts on X and shows like Flip or Flop make it seem like anyone with a hammer and a dream can strike it rich. But the reality is riskier.
Consider Noah Kagan, a successful entrepreneur and founder of AppSumo. In a May 2025 X post, he shared that he bought an Airbnb property in 2017 for $315,000, hoping for passive income. He sold it in 2025 for $377,750, a decent gain. However, he realized that investing the same money in an S&P 500 index fund would have yielded a 10x better return with far less hassle. Reflecting on this, Kagan wrote on X:
“If I could go back? I'd Index and Chill. Let the S&P 500 do its thing while I focus on business and life…real estate "can" be great—just don’t let the hype make you think it’s passive or guaranteed to outperform. You really have to understand the full costs and hassles!”
Rental properties or Airbnbs may seem lucrative, but maintenance, tenant or guest complaints, and local regulations can erode profits. Many owners barely break even after fees, taxes, and unexpected repairs. The media pushes success stories, like the person earning $18,000 a month from multiple Airbnbs, while ignoring the countless others who lose money or give up.
5. Why It Hurts
Survivorship bias is not just misleading. It is harmful. It can make you feel like a failure if your side hustle does not take off, your trades fail, or your property flops. You might chase dreams that sound promising but are statistically unlikely, potentially risking money you cannot afford to lose.
I grew up believing hard work guaranteed success. But these stories often gloss over the role of luck, timing, or connections. They also ignore systemic barriers, such as wage stagnation, where paychecks barely keep up with inflation, or the difficulty of securing loans without substantial wealth or perfect credit. These obstacles make it harder for the average person to succeed, no matter how hard they hustle. The media’s focus on winners fuels a hustle culture that glorifies constant grinding, which can lead to burnout or reckless financial decisions.
6. Seeing the Whole Picture
The truth is messier than the headlines. Side hustles can provide extra income, but most people are not quitting their day jobs. Trading might work for a few, but it is a gamble for most. Real estate can be profitable, but it is not a guaranteed win. Just ask Noah Kagan.
I am not saying do not try, but go in with your eyes open. Seek out stories of failure, not just success. There is wisdom in understanding the gap between the media’s Cinderella stories and reality. If I were to explore this again, I would dive into primary data, like surveys, or talk to people who tried and failed. It is not as glamorous as a Forbes cover story, but it is real.
People have chased get-rich-quick dreams for centuries, and most do not succeed. Knowing this makes you wiser about your own path. The next time you see a headline about an overnight success, remember: you are only seeing the winners. The full story is messier, and far more human. By understanding survivorship bias, you can make smarter choices and avoid the traps of hype-driven dreams.
Thanks to Grok, made by xAI, for helping me copyedit and write this essay.